Tip WON  ·  Thun 2-2 St Gallen
🏆 Swiss Super League 📅 Thursday, 5th March 2026
THU
Thun
W W W W W
2-2
VS
ST
St Gallen
W D W D W
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 2.5
We're backing over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.46
~80% implied
Confidence
80%
Strong Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals @1.46
H2H Over 2.5 80%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
+11.5%
edge
Value Bet
The market prices this at 68.5% but our model gives it 80%. That's a +11.5% edge — statistically meaningful.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 36.5% $365.00
Half Kelly 18.3% $183.00
Quarter Kelly 9.1% $91.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
⚔ Head to Head
Thun0W
Draw5
St Gallen0W
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 80% of H2H meetings (avg 3.8).
📈 Recent Form
Thun wins
St Gallen wins
Goals per game
H2H avg goals3.8
Mixed Not enough form data.
Thun form
St Gallen form
80%
H2H BTTS rate
3.8
H2H avg goals
Match History
Head to Head
28.06.20
: STG
THU - SL
3
2
19.07.20
: THU
STG - SL
2
1
25.06.22
: THU
STG - CF
3
3
04.10.25
: STG
THU - SL
1
2
13.12.25
: THU
STG - SL
0
2
Recent Results
Thun
08.02.26
: SER
THU - SL
1
3
12.02.26
: THU
LAU - SL
5
1
15.02.26
: THU
SIO - SL
1
0
25.02.26
: WIN
THU - SL
0
3
28.02.26
: THU
LUZ - SL
2
1
St Gallen
11.02.26
: STG
YOU - SL
2
1
14.02.26
: STG
GRA - SL
0
0
18.02.26
: WIN
STG - SL
1
5
21.02.26
: SER
STG - SL
1
1
28.02.26
: STG
WIN - SL
2
1
Expert Analysis

On Thursday, 5th March 2026, Thun host St Gallen in Swiss Super League. Our analysis points to over 2.5 goals as the standout bet.

Historically, Thun have won 0 of the last 5 meetings against St Gallen, who have taken 0 victories, with 5 draws. Both teams scored in 80% of those games, averaging 3.8 goals.

With all factors considered, over 2.5 goals at 1.46 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


In another intriguing Swiss Super League matchup, league leaders FC Thun face off against 2nd-placed St. Gallen in what is essentially a six-pointer at the top of the table.

FC Thun has been the surprise package of the 2025/26 season, playing a high-intensity pressing game that has unsettled even the most established teams.

Their home stadium, the Stockhorn Arena, has become a fortress where they haven’t lost in ten matches. The pressure on them is unique—the pressure of the underdog trying to stay on top—and so far, they have handled it with remarkable composure.

St. Gallen is right on their heels, and a win here would see them leapfrog Thun into first place. They are the most prolific scoring team in the league, often involved in high-scoring thrillers.

The “form watcher” would note that St. Gallen has won their last three away games, showing they are not intimidated by hostile environments. This match is a clash of styles: Thun’s organized, high-pressing system against St. Gallen’s free-flowing, attacking flair.

H2H statistics show that these two teams rarely play out draws, with both sides always pushing for a winner. With so much at stake, the atmosphere will be electric.

The prevailing circumstance is the battle for momentum; whoever wins this will gain a massive psychological boost for the final stretch of the season. Expect goals at both ends in a high-octane encounter.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Thun vs St Gallen?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals at around 1.46. Confidence: 80%.
What is Thun's recent form?
Recent form: W/W/W/W/W
How has St Gallen been performing?
Recent form: W/D/W/D/W
What is the H2H record?
Thun 0 wins vs St Gallen's 0, with 5 draws in 5 meetings. Avg 3.8 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Insufficient data — see the preview for context.
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