Tip LOST  ·  Shimal 1-0 Baku Sporting
🏆 Azerbaijan 1 Liqa 📅 Thursday, 23rd April 2026
SHI
Shimal
L L L D L
1-0
VS
BAK
Baku Sporting
D W L D W
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
2
We're backing Baku Sporting to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.28
~50% implied
Confidence
50%
Solid Pick
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Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-28.1%
edge
No Value
Market implies 78.1% probability. Our estimate is 50%, a -28.1% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
Shimal
L L L D L W W L L L
🥶 Cold 3 in a row
Momentum 40%
Baku Sporting
D L L D W L D W L D
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 20%
⚔ Head to Head
Shimal0W
Draw0
Baku Sporting2W
Supports Tip Baku Sporting won 2 of 2 meetings.
📈 Recent Form
Shimal wins2/10
Baku Sporting wins2/10
Goals per game2.5
H2H avg goals3
Caution Baku Sporting: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games.
2-1-7
Shimal form
2-4-4
Baku Sporting form
50%
H2H BTTS rate
3
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Shimal
Overall
2.3
Scoring
2.7
Defence
2.7
Baku Sporting
Overall
3.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
6.3
Key Analytics
Shimal
0.8
Goals
scored/game
2.2
Goals
conceded/game
10%
Clean
sheets
Baku Sporting
0.8
Goals
scored/game
1.1
Goals
conceded/game
20%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 21%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
Match History
Head to Head
17.12.25
1L
Shimal
Baku Sporting
0
1
25.09.25
1L
Baku Sporting
Shimal
4
1
Recent Results
Shimal
16.04.26
1L
Sabail
Shimal
4
0
L
09.04.26
1L
Shimal
Mingachevir
0
3
L
03.04.26
1L
Sahdag Qusar
Shimal
1
0
L
19.03.26
1L
Shimal
Zaqatala
0
0
D
11.03.26
1L
Shimal
Safa Baku
0
2
L
05.03.26
1L
Zaqatala
Shimal
3
4
W
24.02.26
1L
Shimal
Cebrayil
3
2
W
19.02.26
1L
Shimal
Sahdag Qusar
0
1
L
13.02.26
1L
Difai Agsu
Shimal
3
1
L
07.02.26
1L
Shimal
Mingachevir
0
3
L
Baku Sporting
16.04.26
1L
Baku Sporting
Safa Baku
0
0
D
08.04.26
1L
Baku Sporting
MOIK Baku
3
1
W
02.04.26
1L
Sabail
Baku Sporting
1
0
L
18.03.26
1L
Baku Sporting
Mingachevir
1
1
D
12.03.26
1L
Difai Agsu
Baku Sporting
1
3
W
05.03.26
1L
Baku Sporting
Mingachevir
0
1
L
24.02.26
1L
Sabail
Baku Sporting
0
0
D
18.02.26
1L
Cebrayil
Baku Sporting
1
2
W
12.02.26
1L
Baku Sporting
MOIK Baku
2
0
W
05.02.26
1L
Safa Baku
Baku Sporting
1
1
D
Expert Analysis

On Thursday, 23rd April 2026, Shimal host Baku Sporting in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. Our analysis points to Baku Sporting to win as the standout bet.

Shimal come into this going through a difficult run, with 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game.

Baku Sporting are struggling away from home — 2W 4D 4L in 10 games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.1 per match.

Historically, Shimal have won 0 of the last 2 meetings against Baku Sporting, who have taken 2 victories, with 0 draws. Both teams scored in 50% of those games, averaging 3 goals.

With all factors considered, baku sporting to win at 1.28 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Azerbaijan 1 Liqa clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 2, which offers fantastic value at @1.28. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Shimal vs Baku Sporting?
Our top pick is 2 — Baku Sporting to win at around 1.28. Confidence: 50%.
What is Shimal's recent form?
Shimal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 — poor form.
How has Baku Sporting been performing?
Baku Sporting: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games — poor form.
What is the H2H record?
Shimal 0 wins vs Baku Sporting's 2, with 0 draws in 2 meetings. Avg 3 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.5 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 50%.
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