Tip WON  ·  Sabah Baku 3-1 Sumqayit
🏆 Azerbaijan League 📅 Thursday, 19th March 2026
SAB
Sabah Baku
W W W D W
3-1
VS
SUM
Sumqayit
L D L L D
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1
We're backing Sabah Baku to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.23
~60% implied
Confidence
60%
Solid Pick
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Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-21.3%
edge
No Value
Market implies 81.3% probability. Our estimate is 60%, a -21.3% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
Sabah Baku
W W D D W W W D W W
〰 Mixed 2 in a row
Momentum 80%
Sumqayit
L D L L D L L D W L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 20%
⚔ Head to Head
Sabah Baku5W
Draw4
Sumqayit1W
Mixed Sabah Baku won 5 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📈 Recent Form
Sabah Baku wins7/10
Sumqayit wins1/10
Goals per game3
H2H avg goals2.6
Supports Tip Sabah Baku: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games.
7-3-0
Sabah Baku form
1-3-6
Sumqayit form
50%
H2H BTTS rate
2.6
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Sabah Baku
Overall
7.9
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.7
Sumqayit
Overall
1.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
5.7
Key Analytics
Sabah Baku
3.1
Goals
scored/game
1
Goals
conceded/game
40%
Clean
sheets
Sumqayit
0.6
Goals
scored/game
1.3
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 14%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
Match History
Head to Head
22.12.25
PL: Sumqayit
Sabah Baku
1
3
28.09.25
PL: Sabah Baku
Sumqayit
1
1
29.03.25
PL: Sumqayit
Sabah Baku
3
3
27.02.25
CUP: Sumqayit
Sabah Baku
0
4
05.02.25
CUP: Sabah Baku
Sumqayit
0
0
25.01.25
PL: Sabah Baku
Sumqayit
0
0
03.11.24
PL: Sumqayit
Sabah Baku
1
0
25.08.24
PL: Sabah Baku
Sumqayit
3
1
18.05.24
PL: Sabah Baku
Sumqayit
2
0
17.03.24
PL: Sumqayit
Sabah Baku
1
2
Recent Results
Sabah Baku
14.03.26
PL: Imisli FK
Sabah Baku
0
5
W
10.03.26
PL: Sabah Baku
Gabala
7
1
W
05.03.26
CUP: Gabala
Sabah Baku (7-5 pens)
3
3
L
01.03.26
PL: Qarabag
Sabah Baku
3
3
D
22.02.26
PL: Sabah Baku
Kapaz
1
0
W
16.02.26
PL: Gabala
Sabah Baku
0
1
W
08.02.26
PL: Sabah Baku
Araz
4
1
W
04.02.26
CUP: Sabah Baku
Gabala
0
0
D
31.01.26
PL: Zira
Sabah Baku
1
3
W
25.01.26
PL: Sabah Baku
Karvan
4
1
W
Sumqayit
13.03.26
PL: Sumqayit
Shamakhi
0
1
L
07.03.26
PL: Karvan
Sumqayit
1
1
D
03.03.26
CUP: Zira
Sumqayit
2
0
L
27.02.26
PL: Kapaz
Sumqayit
3
0
L
20.02.26
PL: Sumqayit
Gabala
0
0
D
15.02.26
PL: Araz
Sumqayit
1
0
L
08.02.26
PL: Sumqayit
Zira
2
3
L
04.02.26
CUP: Sumqayit
Zira
0
0
D
30.01.26
PL: Karvan
Sumqayit
0
2
W
25.01.26
PL: Turan Tovuz
Sumqayit
2
1
L
Expert Analysis

On Thursday, 19th March 2026, Sabah Baku host Sumqayit in Azerbaijan League. Our analysis points to Sabah Baku to win as the standout bet.

Sabah Baku come into this in strong form, with 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 3.1 goals scored and 1 conceded per game.

Sumqayit are struggling away from home — 1W 3D 6L in 10 games, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.3 per match.

Historically, Sabah Baku have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Sumqayit, who have taken 1 victories, with 4 draws. Both teams scored in 50% of those games, averaging 2.6 goals.

With all factors considered, sabah baku to win at 1.23 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Azerbaijan League clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side. Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment. Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss. When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 1, which offers fantastic value at 1.23. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out. The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Sabah Baku vs Sumqayit?
Our top pick is 1 — Sabah Baku to win at around 1.23. Confidence: 60%.
What is Sabah Baku's recent form?
Sabah Baku have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 — very good form.
How has Sumqayit been performing?
Sumqayit: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games — poor form.
What is the H2H record?
Sabah Baku 5 wins vs Sumqayit's 1, with 4 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 2.6 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 3 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 50%.
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