Tip WON  ·  FC Porto 1-0 Arouca
🏆 Liga Portugal 📅 Friday, 27th February 2026
FC
FC Porto
W W D L W
1-0
VS
ARO
Arouca
W L W W L
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1
We're backing FC Porto to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.19
~73% implied
Confidence
66%
Strong Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main 1 — FC Porto to win @1.19
Arouca Clean Sheet Away CS 60%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-11%
edge
No Value
Market implies 84% probability. Our estimate is 73%, a -11% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
FC Porto
W L D W W
〰 Mixed 2 in a row
Momentum 60%
Arouca
D L W W L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 40%
⚔ Head to Head
FC Porto3W
Draw1
Arouca1W
Supports Tip FC Porto won 3 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
📈 Recent Form
FC Porto wins3/5
Arouca wins2/5
Goals per game2.4
H2H avg goals3.4
Supports Tip FC Porto: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games.
3-1-1
FC Porto form
2-1-2
Arouca form
40%
H2H BTTS rate
3.4
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
FC Porto
Overall
6.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
7.3
Arouca
Overall
4.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
6.0
Key Analytics
FC Porto
1.4
Goals
scored/game
0.8
Goals
conceded/game
40%
Clean
sheets
Arouca
1.4
Goals
scored/game
1.2
Goals
conceded/game
60%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 17%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 25%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
Match History
Head to Head
03.09.23
: FC Porto
Arouca
1
1
12.02.24
: Arouca
FC Porto
3
2
29.09.24
: FC Porto
Arouca
4
0
01.03.25
: Arouca
FC Porto
0
2
29.09.25
: Arouca
FC Porto
0
4
Recent Results
FC Porto
29.01.26
: FC Porto
Rangers
3
1
02.02.26
: Casa Pia
FC Porto
2
1
09.02.26
: FC Porto
Sporting CP
1
1
15.02.26
: Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
22.02.26
: FC Porto
Rio Ave
1
0
Arouca
21.12.25
: Santa Clara
Arouca
0
0
03.01.26
: Tondela
Arouca
3
1
17.01.26
: AFS
Arouca
0
1
31.01.26
: Rio Ave
Arouca
0
3
14.02.26
: Casa Pia
Arouca
3
2
Expert Analysis

On Friday, 27th February 2026, FC Porto host Arouca in Liga Portugal. Our analysis points to FC Porto to win as the standout bet.

FC Porto come into this showing mixed form, with 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses from their last 5 matches. They average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.

Arouca are inconsistent on the road — 2W 1D 2L in 5 games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 per match.

Historically, FC Porto have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Arouca, who have taken 1 victories, with 1 draws. Both teams scored in 40% of those games, averaging 3.4 goals.

With all factors considered, fc porto to win at 1.19 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for FC Porto vs Arouca?
Our top pick is 1 — FC Porto to win at around 1.19. Confidence: 66%.
What is FC Porto's recent form?
FC Porto have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 — decent form.
How has Arouca been performing?
Arouca: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — inconsistent.
What is the H2H record?
FC Porto 3 wins vs Arouca's 1, with 1 draws in 5 meetings. Avg 3.4 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.4 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 40%.
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