Tip WON  ·  Celtic 3-1 Dunfermline
🏆 Scottish Cup 📅 Saturday, 23rd May 2026
CEL
Celtic
W W W W W
3-1
VS
DUN
Dunfermline
L D D W D
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 2.5
We're backing over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.50
~90% implied
Confidence
73%
Strong Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals @1.50
H2H Over 2.5 70%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
+23.3%
edge
Value Bet
The market prices this at 66.7% but our model gives it 90%. That's a +23.3% edge — statistically meaningful.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 70% $700.00
Half Kelly 35% $350.00
Quarter Kelly 17.5% $175.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
Form Streak Tracker
Celtic
W W W W W W W W L W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 80%
Dunfermline
L D D W D W L W D L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 40%
⚔ Head to Head
Celtic10W
Draw0
Dunfermline0W
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 70% of H2H meetings (avg 2.8).
📈 Recent Form
Celtic wins9/10
Dunfermline wins3/10
Goals per game2.8
H2H avg goals2.8
Mixed Over 2.5 goals in 50% of recent games.
9-0-1
Celtic form
3-4-3
Dunfermline form
50%
H2H BTTS rate
2.8
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Celtic
Overall
9.0
Scoring
8.7
Defence
6.0
Dunfermline
Overall
4.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
7.0
Key Analytics
Celtic
2.6
Goals
scored/game
1.2
Goals
conceded/game
10%
Clean
sheets
Dunfermline
0.8
Goals
scored/game
0.9
Goals
conceded/game
50%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
Match History
Head to Head
17.08.19
LC
Celtic
(a.e.t. 1-1) Dunfermline
2
1
22.02.12
PRE
Celtic
Dunfermline
2
0
02.01.12
PRE
Dunfermline
Celtic
0
3
23.11.11
PRE
Celtic
Dunfermline
2
1
07.02.10
SC
Dunfermline
Celtic
2
4
26.05.07
SC
Celtic
Dunfermline
1
0
03.03.07
PRE
Celtic
Dunfermline
2
1
10.12.06
PRE
Dunfermline
Celtic
1
2
16.09.06
PRE
Celtic
Dunfermline
1
0
19.03.06
LC
Dunfermline
Celtic
0
3
Recent Results
Celtic
16.05.26
PRE
Celtic
Hearts
3
1
W
13.05.26
PRE
Motherwell
Celtic
2
3
W
10.05.26
PRE
Celtic
Rangers
3
1
W
03.05.26
PRE
Hibernian
Celtic
1
2
W
25.04.26
PRE
Celtic
Falkirk
3
1
W
19.04.26
SC
Celtic
St. Mirren
6
2
W
11.04.26
PRE
Celtic
St. Mirren
1
0
W
05.04.26
PRE
Dundee FC
Celtic
1
2
W
22.03.26
PRE
Dundee Utd
Celtic
2
0
L
14.03.26
PRE
Celtic
Motherwell
3
1
W
Dunfermline
15.05.26
PRE
Partick Thistle
Dunfermline
2
1
L
12.05.26
PRE
Dunfermline
Partick Thistle
1
1
D
08.05.26
PRE
Arbroath
Dunfermline
0
0
D
05.05.26
PRE
Dunfermline
Arbroath
1
0
W
01.05.26
CHA
Dunfermline
Arbroath
0
0
D
25.04.26
CHA
Queen’s Park
Dunfermline
0
2
W
21.04.26
CHA
Dunfermline
St Johnstone
0
2
L
18.04.26
SC
Dunfermline
(a.e.t. 0-0) Falkirk
1
0
W
14.04.26
CHA
Airdrieonians
Dunfermline
2
2
D
11.04.26
CHA
Partick Thistle
Dunfermline
2
0
L
Expert Analysis

On Saturday, 23rd May 2026, Celtic host Dunfermline in Scottish Cup. Our analysis points to over 2.5 goals as the standout bet.

Celtic come into this in strong form, with 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 2.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Dunfermline are struggling away from home — 3W 4D 3L in 10 games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.9 per match.

Historically, Celtic have won 10 of the last 10 meetings against Dunfermline, who have taken 0 victories, with 0 draws. Both teams scored in 50% of those games, averaging 2.8 goals.

With all factors considered, over 2.5 goals at 1.50 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Scottish Cup clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with Over 2.5, which offers fantastic value at @1.50. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Celtic vs Dunfermline?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals at around 1.50. Confidence: 73%.
What is Celtic's recent form?
Celtic have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 — very good form.
How has Dunfermline been performing?
Dunfermline: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games — inconsistent.
What is the H2H record?
Celtic 10 wins vs Dunfermline's 0, with 0 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 2.8 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.8 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 50%.
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