Tip WON  ·  Benfica 4-1 Moreirense
🏆 Portugal Liga 📅 Saturday, 25th April 2026
BEN
Benfica
W W D W W
4-1
VS
MOR
Moreirense
W D L L L
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1
We're backing Benfica to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.08
~50% implied
Confidence
53%
Solid Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main 1 — Benfica to win @1.08
Goals Over 1.5 80%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-42.6%
edge
No Value
Market implies 92.6% probability. Our estimate is 50%, a -42.6% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
Benfica
W W D W W D W L W L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 40%
Moreirense
W D L L L D D L W L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 20%
⚔ Head to Head
Benfica5W
Draw5
Moreirense0W
Mixed Benfica won 5 of the last 10 meetings (5 draws).
📈 Recent Form
Benfica wins6/10
Moreirense wins2/10
Goals per game2.4
H2H avg goals2.5
Supports Tip Benfica: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games.
6-2-2
Benfica form
2-3-5
Moreirense form
60%
H2H BTTS rate
2.5
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Benfica
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.0
Moreirense
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
5.3
Key Analytics
Benfica
1.8
Goals
scored/game
0.9
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Moreirense
0.7
Goals
scored/game
1.4
Goals
conceded/game
10%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
Match History
Head to Head
14.12.25
LP
Moreirense
Benfica
0
4
08.02.25
LP
Benfica
Moreirense
3
2
30.08.24
LP
Moreirense
Benfica
1
1
14.04.24
LP
Benfica
Moreirense
3
0
03.12.23
LP
Moreirense
Benfica
0
0
17.12.22
CUP
Moreirense
Benfica
1
1
15.01.22
LP
Benfica
Moreirense
1
1
07.08.21
LP
Moreirense
Benfica
1
2
14.02.21
LP
Moreirense
Benfica
1
1
26.09.20
LP
Benfica
Moreirense
2
0
Recent Results
Benfica
19.04.26
LP
Sporting CP
Benfica
1
2
W
12.04.26
LP
Benfica
Nacional
2
0
W
06.04.26
LP
Casa Pia
Benfica
1
1
D
21.03.26
LP
Benfica
Vitoria Guimaraes
3
0
W
14.03.26
LP
Arouca
Benfica
1
2
W
08.03.26
LP
Benfica
FC Porto
2
2
D
02.03.26
LP
Gil Vicente
Benfica
1
2
W
25.02.26
CL
Real Madrid
Benfica
2
1
L
21.02.26
LP
Benfica
AFS
3
0
W
17.02.26
CL
Benfica
Real Madrid
0
1
L
Moreirense
20.04.26
LP
Moreirense
Estoril
1
0
W
10.04.26
LP
Famalicao
Moreirense
1
1
D
04.04.26
LP
Moreirense
Braga
0
1
L
21.03.26
LP
Moreirense
Arouca
0
1
L
15.03.26
LP
FC Porto
Moreirense
3
0
L
07.03.26
LP
Moreirense
Nacional
1
1
D
01.03.26
LP
Casa Pia
Moreirense
1
1
D
21.02.26
LP
Moreirense
Sporting CP
0
3
L
16.02.26
LP
Rio Ave
Moreirense
1
2
W
07.02.26
LP
Moreirense
Gil Vicente
1
2
L
Expert Analysis

On Saturday, 25th April 2026, Benfica host Moreirense in Portugal Liga. Our analysis points to Benfica to win as the standout bet.

Benfica come into this showing mixed form, with 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.

Moreirense are struggling away from home — 2W 3D 5L in 10 games, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.4 per match.

Historically, Benfica have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Moreirense, who have taken 0 victories, with 5 draws. Both teams scored in 60% of those games, averaging 2.5 goals.

With all factors considered, benfica to win at 1.08 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Portugal Liga clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 1, which offers fantastic value at @1.08. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our top pick is 1 — Benfica to win at around 1.08. Confidence: 53%.
What is Benfica's recent form?
Benfica have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 — decent form.
How has Moreirense been performing?
Moreirense: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games — poor form.
What is the H2H record?
Benfica 5 wins vs Moreirense's 0, with 5 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 2.5 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.4 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 60%.
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