Tip WON  ·  Super Nova 1-4 Riga
🏆 Latvia Virsliga 📅 Tuesday, 14th April 2026
SUP
Super Nova
W W W D L
1-4
VS
RIG
Riga
D W L W W
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 2.5
We're backing over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.47
~90% implied
Confidence
79%
Strong Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals @1.47
Goals Over 2.5 79%
Goals Over 1.5 89%
Both Teams To Score BTTS — Yes 79%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
+22%
edge
Value Bet
The market prices this at 68% but our model gives it 90%. That's a +22% edge — statistically meaningful.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 68.7% $687.00
Half Kelly 34.4% $344.00
Quarter Kelly 17.2% $172.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
Form Streak Tracker
Super Nova
W W W D L L D W L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 20%
Riga
D W L W W L W W W L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 60%
⚔ Head to Head
Super Nova0W
Draw1
Riga9W
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 60% of H2H meetings (avg 4.2).
📈 Recent Form
Super Nova wins4/9
Riga wins6/10
Goals per game3.7
H2H avg goals4.2
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 79% of recent games.
4-2-3
Super Nova form
6-1-3
Riga form
60%
H2H BTTS rate
4.2
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Super Nova
Overall
5.1
Scoring
4.8
Defence
5.2
Riga
Overall
6.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
5.0
Key Analytics
Super Nova
1.4
Goals
scored/game
1.4
Goals
conceded/game
11%
Clean
sheets
Riga
3
Goals
scored/game
1.5
Goals
conceded/game
20%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 40%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 8%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 40%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
Match History
Head to Head
30.08.25
Virslīga: Super Nova
Riga FC
2
6
22.06.25
Virslīga: Riga FC
Super Nova
2
0
01.05.25
Virslīga: Super Nova
Riga FC
1
5
06.03.25
Virslīga: Riga FC
Super Nova
2
0
29.10.23
Virslīga: Riga FC
Super Nova
1
1
06.08.23
Virslīga: Super Nova
Riga FC
1
5
31.05.23
Virslīga: Riga FC
Super Nova
5
1
20.04.23
Virslīga: Super Nova
Riga FC
0
4
30.09.22
Virslīga: Super Nova
Riga FC
1
4
17.07.22
Virslīga: Riga FC
Super Nova
1
0
Recent Results
Super Nova
09.04.26
Virslīga: FK Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
1
W
03.04.26
Virslīga: Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
W
22.03.26
Virslīga: Tukums 2000
Super Nova
1
2
W
15.03.26
Virslīga: Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
08.03.26
Virslīga: FK Auda
Super Nova
2
1
L
28.02.26
Friendlies: Paide
Super Nova
1
0
L
21.02.26
Friendlies: Kalju
Super Nova
1
1
D
11.02.26
Friendlies: Narva
Super Nova
1
3
W
14.01.26
Friendlies: RFS
Super Nova
5
2
L
Riga
09.04.26
Virslīga: Riga FC
Tukums 2000
3
3
D
04.04.26
Virslīga: FS Jelgava
Riga FC
0
8
W
27.03.26
Friendlies: Legia Warsaw
Riga FC
3
1
L
20.03.26
Virslīga: FK Auda
Riga FC
1
2
W
14.03.26
Virslīga: Riga FC
BFC Daugavpils
4
2
W
07.03.26
Virslīga: FK Liepāja
Riga FC
2
1
L
24.02.26
Friendlies: Flora Tallinn
Riga FC
0
3
W
17.02.26
Winter Cup: Riga FC
FK Auda
4
1
W
12.02.26
Friendlies: LNZ Cherkasy
Riga FC
1
3
W
05.02.26
Friendlies: Shakhtar Donetsk
Riga FC
2
1
L
Expert Analysis

On Tuesday, 14th April 2026, Super Nova host Riga in Latvia Virsliga. Our analysis points to over 2.5 goals as the standout bet.

Super Nova come into this showing mixed form, with 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from their last 9 matches. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.

Riga are inconsistent on the road — 6W 1D 3L in 10 games, scoring 3 and conceding 1.5 per match.

Historically, Super Nova have won 0 of the last 10 meetings against Riga, who have taken 9 victories, with 1 draws. Both teams scored in 60% of those games, averaging 4.2 goals.

With all factors considered, over 2.5 goals at 1.47 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Latvia Virsliga clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with Over 2.5, which offers fantastic value at @1.47. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Super Nova vs Riga?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals at around 1.47. Confidence: 79%.
What is Super Nova's recent form?
Super Nova have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 9 — inconsistent.
How has Riga been performing?
Riga: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games — decent form.
What is the H2H record?
Super Nova 0 wins vs Riga's 9, with 1 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 4.2 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 3.7 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 60%.
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