Tip WON  ·  Sabail 4-0 Shimal
🏆 Azerbaijan 1 Liqa 📅 Thursday, 16th April 2026
SAB
Sabail
L W D W W
4-0
VS
SHI
Shimal
L L D L W
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1
We're backing Sabail to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.19
~50% implied
Confidence
36%
Value Play
18+ · Gamble responsibly · Tips are not guarantees · GambleAware · GamCare
Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-34%
edge
No Value
Market implies 84% probability. Our estimate is 50%, a -34% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
Sabail
L W D W W D L D W L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 20%
Shimal
L L D L W W L L L W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 40%
⚔ Head to Head
Sabail0W
Draw1
Shimal1W
Against Sabail won 0 of the last 2 meetings (1 draws).
📈 Recent Form
Sabail wins4/10
Shimal wins3/10
Goals per game2.8
H2H avg goals3.5
Caution Sabail: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games.
4-3-3
Sabail form
3-1-6
Shimal form
50%
H2H BTTS rate
3.5
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Sabail
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.7
Shimal
Overall
3.3
Scoring
4.0
Defence
3.0
Key Analytics
Sabail
1.3
Goals
scored/game
1
Goals
conceded/game
50%
Clean
sheets
Shimal
1.2
Goals
scored/game
2.1
Goals
conceded/game
10%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
Match History
Head to Head
24.12.25
First Division
Sabail
Shimal
3
4
02.10.25
First Division
Shimal
Sabail
0
0
Recent Results
Sabail
09.04.26
First Division
Safa Baku
Sabail
2
1
L
02.04.26
First Division
Sabail
Baku Sporting
1
0
W
18.03.26
First Division
Sabail
MOIK Baku
2
2
D
12.03.26
First Division
Mingachevir
Sabail
0
1
W
06.03.26
First Division
Cebrayil
Sabail
1
4
W
24.02.26
First Division
Sabail
Baku Sporting
0
0
D
18.02.26
First Division
MOIK Baku
Sabail
1
0
L
12.02.26
First Division
Sabail
Safa Baku
0
0
D
05.02.26
First Division
Zaqatala
Sabail
0
1
W
24.12.25
First Division
Sabail
Shimal
3
4
L
Shimal
09.04.26
First Division
Shimal
Mingachevir
0
3
L
03.04.26
First Division
Sahdag Qusar
Shimal
1
0
L
19.03.26
First Division
Shimal
Zaqatala
0
0
D
11.03.26
First Division
Shimal
Safa Baku
0
2
L
05.03.26
First Division
Zaqatala
Shimal
3
4
W
24.02.26
First Division
Shimal
Cebrayil
3
2
W
19.02.26
First Division
Shimal
Sahdag Qusar
0
1
L
13.02.26
First Division
Difai Agsu
Shimal
3
1
L
07.02.26
First Division
Shimal
Mingachevir
0
3
L
24.12.25
First Division
Sabail
Shimal
3
4
W
Expert Analysis

On Thursday, 16th April 2026, Sabail host Shimal in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. Our analysis points to Sabail to win as the standout bet.

Sabail come into this showing mixed form, with 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1 conceded per game.

Shimal are struggling away from home — 3W 1D 6L in 10 games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.1 per match.

Historically, Sabail have won 0 of the last 2 meetings against Shimal, who have taken 1 victories, with 1 draws. Both teams scored in 50% of those games, averaging 3.5 goals.

With all factors considered, sabail to win at 1.19 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Azerbaijan 1 Liqa clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 1, which offers fantastic value at @1.19. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Sabail vs Shimal?
Our top pick is 1 — Sabail to win at around 1.19. Confidence: 36%.
What is Sabail's recent form?
Sabail have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 — inconsistent.
How has Shimal been performing?
Shimal: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games — inconsistent.
What is the H2H record?
Sabail 0 wins vs Shimal's 1, with 1 draws in 2 meetings. Avg 3.5 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.8 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 50%.
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