Tip WON  ·  Riga 3-0 Super Nova
🏆 Latvia Virsliga 📅 Sunday, 24th May 2026
RIG
Riga
W D W W W
3-0
VS
SUP
Super Nova
W W D L L
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 2.5
We're backing over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.39
~90% implied
Confidence
77%
Strong Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals @1.39
Goals Over 2.5 65%
Goals Over 1.5 80%
H2H Over 2.5 70%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
+18.1%
edge
Value Bet
The market prices this at 71.9% but our model gives it 90%. That's a +18.1% edge — statistically meaningful.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 64.4% $644.00
Half Kelly 32.2% $322.00
Quarter Kelly 16.1% $161.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
Form Streak Tracker
Riga
W D W W W D W W W D
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 60%
Super Nova
W W D L L W L L L W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 40%
⚔ Head to Head
Riga9W
Draw1
Super Nova0W
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 70% of H2H meetings (avg 4.6).
📈 Recent Form
Riga wins7/10
Super Nova wins4/10
Goals per game3.3
H2H avg goals4.6
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 65% of recent games.
7-3-0
Riga form
4-1-5
Super Nova form
70%
H2H BTTS rate
4.6
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Riga
Overall
7.9
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.0
Super Nova
Overall
4.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.7
Key Analytics
Riga
3
Goals
scored/game
1.2
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Super Nova
1.1
Goals
scored/game
1.3
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
Match History
Head to Head
14.04.26
VIR
Super Nova
Riga FC
1
4
30.08.25
VIR
Super Nova
Riga FC
2
6
22.06.25
VIR
Riga FC
Super Nova
2
0
01.05.25
VIR
Super Nova
Riga FC
1
5
06.03.25
VIR
Riga FC
Super Nova
2
0
29.10.23
VIR
Riga FC
Super Nova
1
1
06.08.23
VIR
Super Nova
Riga FC
1
5
31.05.23
VIR
Riga FC
Super Nova
5
1
20.04.23
VIR
Super Nova
Riga FC
0
4
30.09.22
VIR
Super Nova
Riga FC
1
4
Recent Results
Riga
20.05.26
VIR
Tukums 2000
Riga FC
1
3
W
16.05.26
VIR
Riga FC
Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
VIR
Riga FC
Auda
4
1
W
08.05.26
VIR
BFC Daugavpils
Riga FC
1
3
W
03.05.26
VIR
Riga FC
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
28.04.26
VIR
RFS
Riga FC
3
3
D
22.04.26
VIR
Riga FC
Ogre United
4
0
W
18.04.26
VIR
Grobina
Riga FC
0
3
W
14.04.26
VIR
Super Nova
Riga FC
1
4
W
09.04.26
VIR
Riga FC
Tukums 2000
3
3
D
Super Nova
20.05.26
VIR
Grobina
Super Nova
0
2
W
16.05.26
VIR
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
VIR
Super Nova
Tukums 2000
1
1
D
06.05.26
VIR
Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
L
01.05.26
VIR
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
VIR
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
W
23.04.26
VIR
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
VIR
RFS
Super Nova
2
0
L
14.04.26
VIR
Super Nova
Riga FC
1
4
L
09.04.26
VIR
Grobina
Super Nova
0
1
W
Expert Analysis

On Sunday, 24th May 2026, Riga host Super Nova in Latvia Virsliga. Our analysis points to over 2.5 goals as the standout bet.

Riga come into this in strong form, with 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Super Nova are inconsistent on the road — 4W 1D 5L in 10 games, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 per match.

Historically, Riga have won 9 of the last 10 meetings against Super Nova, who have taken 0 victories, with 1 draws. Both teams scored in 70% of those games, averaging 4.6 goals.

With all factors considered, over 2.5 goals at 1.39 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Latvia Virsliga clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with Over 2.5, which offers fantastic value at @1.39. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Riga vs Super Nova?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals at around 1.39. Confidence: 77%.
What is Riga's recent form?
Riga have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 — very good form.
How has Super Nova been performing?
Super Nova: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — inconsistent.
What is the H2H record?
Riga 9 wins vs Super Nova's 0, with 1 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 4.6 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 3.3 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 70%.
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