Tip WON  ·  Linfield 3-1 Dungannon
🏆 NIFL Premiership 📅 Tuesday, 12th May 2026
LIN
Linfield
L L L W D
3-1
VS
DUN
Dungannon
W W L L L
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 2.5
We're backing over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.42
~90% implied
Confidence
76%
Strong Pick
18+ · Gamble responsibly · Tips are not guarantees · GambleAware · GamCare
Supporting Bets
★ Main Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals @1.42
Goals Over 1.5 85%
H2H Over 2.5 70%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
+19.6%
edge
Value Bet
The market prices this at 70.4% but our model gives it 90%. That's a +19.6% edge — statistically meaningful.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 66.2% $662.00
Half Kelly 33.1% $331.00
Quarter Kelly 16.6% $166.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
Form Streak Tracker
Linfield
L L L W D L W W L D
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 40%
Dungannon
W W L L L L L W L L
〰 Mixed 2 in a row
Momentum 20%
⚔ Head to Head
Linfield8W
Draw0
Dungannon2W
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 70% of H2H meetings (avg 3.2).
📈 Recent Form
Linfield wins3/10
Dungannon wins3/10
Goals per game3.1
H2H avg goals3.2
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 60% of recent games.
3-2-5
Linfield form
3-0-7
Dungannon form
40%
H2H BTTS rate
3.2
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Linfield
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.0
Dungannon
Overall
3.0
Scoring
3.7
Defence
1.3
Key Analytics
Linfield
1
Goals
scored/game
1.5
Goals
conceded/game
10%
Clean
sheets
Dungannon
1.1
Goals
scored/game
2.6
Goals
conceded/game
0%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
Match History
Head to Head
07.04.26
NIFL
Dungannon
Linfield
1
3
17.02.26
NIFL
Dungannon
Linfield
1
4
10.02.26
NIFL
Linfield
Dungannon
6
0
10.08.25
NIFL
Linfield
Dungannon
3
0
04.07.25
CHA
Linfield
Dungannon
0
1
12.04.25
NIFL
Linfield
Dungannon
2
0
24.03.25
NIFL
Dungannon
Linfield
0
3
17.12.24
NIFL
Dungannon
Linfield
0
1
17.08.24
NIFL
Linfield
Dungannon
3
1
27.01.24
NIFL
Linfield
Dungannon
1
2
Recent Results
Linfield
25.04.26
NIFL
Linfield
Cliftonville
1
2
L
18.04.26
NIFL
Linfield
Coleraine
0
3
L
11.04.26
NIFL
Linfield
Larne
0
2
L
07.04.26
NIFL
Dungannon
Linfield
1
3
W
28.03.26
NIFL
Glentoran
Linfield
1
1
D
20.03.26
NIFL
Carrick Rangers
Linfield
2
0
L
15.03.26
LC
Glentoran
Linfield
0
1
W
10.03.26
NIFL
Linfield
Portadown
3
1
W
01.03.26
NIFL
Cliftonville
Linfield
2
0
L
24.02.26
NIFL
Larne
Linfield
1
1
D
Dungannon
09.05.26
NIFL
Cliftonville
Dungannon
1
2
W
06.05.26
NIFL
Dungannon
Carrick Rangers
3
1
W
02.05.26
CUP
Dungannon
Coleraine
2
3
L
25.04.26
NIFL
Larne
Dungannon
8
0
L
18.04.26
NIFL
Cliftonville
Dungannon
1
0
L
11.04.26
NIFL
Glentoran
Dungannon
5
0
L
07.04.26
NIFL
Dungannon
Linfield
1
3
L
03.04.26
CUP
Cliftonville
Dungannon
1
2
W
28.03.26
NIFL
Dungannon
Coleraine
1
2
L
21.03.26
NIFL
Dungannon
Bangor FC
0
1
L
Expert Analysis

On Tuesday, 12th May 2026, Linfield host Dungannon in NIFL Premiership. Our analysis points to over 2.5 goals as the standout bet.

Linfield come into this going through a difficult run, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.

Dungannon are struggling away from home — 3W 0D 7L in 10 games, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.6 per match.

Historically, Linfield have won 8 of the last 10 meetings against Dungannon, who have taken 2 victories, with 0 draws. Both teams scored in 40% of those games, averaging 3.2 goals.

With all factors considered, over 2.5 goals at 1.42 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this NIFL Premiership clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with Over 2.5, which offers fantastic value at @1.42. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Linfield vs Dungannon?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals at around 1.42. Confidence: 76%.
What is Linfield's recent form?
Linfield have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 — inconsistent.
How has Dungannon been performing?
Dungannon: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games — inconsistent.
What is the H2H record?
Linfield 8 wins vs Dungannon's 2, with 0 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 3.2 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 3.1 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 40%.
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