Tip WON  ·  Grotta 1-3 Afturelding
🏆 Iceland Division 1 📅 Monday, 18th May 2026
GRO
Grotta
W W L L W
1-3
VS
AFT
Afturelding
W W D L W
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 2.5
We're backing over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.39
~90% implied
Confidence
76%
Strong Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals @1.39
Goals Over 2.5 70%
Goals Over 1.5 85%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
+18.1%
edge
Value Bet
The market prices this at 71.9% but our model gives it 90%. That's a +18.1% edge — statistically meaningful.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 64.4% $644.00
Half Kelly 32.2% $322.00
Quarter Kelly 16.1% $161.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
Form Streak Tracker
Grotta
W W L L W W W L L L
🥶 Cold 3 in a row
Momentum 40%
Afturelding
W W D L W W L L W W
〰 Mixed 2 in a row
Momentum 60%
⚔ Head to Head
Grotta2W
Draw4
Afturelding4W
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 60% of H2H meetings (avg 3.9).
📈 Recent Form
Grotta wins5/10
Afturelding wins6/10
Goals per game3.8
H2H avg goals3.9
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 70% of recent games.
5-0-5
Grotta form
6-1-3
Afturelding form
80%
H2H BTTS rate
3.9
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Grotta
Overall
5.0
Scoring
4.7
Defence
5.0
Afturelding
Overall
6.3
Scoring
8.3
Defence
2.7
Key Analytics
Grotta
1.4
Goals
scored/game
1.5
Goals
conceded/game
40%
Clean
sheets
Afturelding
2.5
Goals
scored/game
2.2
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Away Win & BTTS No 27%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 30%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 37%
Away Win & Under 2.5 16%
Match History
Head to Head
06.02.26
CUP
Afturelding
Grotta
2
0
18.07.24
D1
Grotta
Afturelding
1
4
03.05.24
D1
Afturelding
Grotta
1
1
02.08.23
D1
Afturelding
Grotta
1
1
26.05.23
D1
Grotta
Afturelding
2
3
25.02.23
CUP
Grotta
Afturelding
1
1
12.08.22
D1
Grotta
Afturelding
4
2
03.06.22
D1
Afturelding
Grotta
2
2
15.09.21
D1
Grotta
Afturelding
8
0
01.07.21
D1
Afturelding
Grotta
2
1
Recent Results
Grotta
14.05.26
CUP
Vestri
Grotta
0
4
W
09.05.26
D1
Aegir
Grotta
0
1
W
01.05.26
D1
Grotta
Leiknir
1
2
L
25.04.26
D1
Kopavogur
Grotta
4
1
L
06.04.26
CUP
Grotta
Alftanes
1
0
W
26.03.26
CUP
Grotta
Ulfarnir
2
1
W
14.03.26
CUP
Throttur Vogar
Grotta
0
2
W
14.02.26
CUP
Thor Akureyri
Grotta
3
1
L
11.02.26
CUP
Grotta
Akranes
1
3
L
06.02.26
CUP
Afturelding
Grotta
2
0
L
Afturelding
13.05.26
CUP
Afturelding
Njardvik
5
2
W
08.05.26
D1
Leiknir
Afturelding
0
3
W
01.05.26
D1
Afturelding
Volsungur
0
0
D
24.04.26
D1
Afturelding
IR Reykjavik
4
7
L
03.04.26
CUP
Afturelding
Ymir
6
1
W
29.03.26
CUP
IR Reykjavik
Afturelding
2
3
W
25.02.26
CUP
Afturelding
Thor Akureyri
0
5
L
21.02.26
CUP
Valur
Afturelding
4
0
L
06.02.26
CUP
Afturelding
Grotta
2
0
W
29.01.26
CUP
Akranes
Afturelding
1
2
W
Expert Analysis

On Monday, 18th May 2026, Grotta host Afturelding in Iceland Division 1. Our analysis points to over 2.5 goals as the standout bet.

Grotta come into this showing mixed form, with 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.

Afturelding are inconsistent on the road — 6W 1D 3L in 10 games, scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.2 per match.

Historically, Grotta have won 2 of the last 10 meetings against Afturelding, who have taken 4 victories, with 4 draws. Both teams scored in 80% of those games, averaging 3.9 goals.

With all factors considered, over 2.5 goals at 1.39 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Iceland Division 1 clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with Over 2.5, which offers fantastic value at @1.39. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Grotta vs Afturelding?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals at around 1.39. Confidence: 76%.
What is Grotta's recent form?
Grotta have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 — decent form.
How has Afturelding been performing?
Afturelding: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games — decent form.
What is the H2H record?
Grotta 2 wins vs Afturelding's 4, with 4 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 3.9 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 3.8 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 80%.
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