Tip WON  ·  Erbil 3-1 Baghdad
🏆 Iraq Stars League 📅 Tuesday, 2nd June 2026
ERB
Erbil
W W L W D
3-1
VS
BAG
Baghdad
L W L L D
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1
We're backing Erbil to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.42
~50% implied
Confidence
56%
Solid Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main 1 — Erbil to win @1.42
Goals Over 1.5 85%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-20.4%
edge
No Value
Market implies 70.4% probability. Our estimate is 50%, a -20.4% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
Erbil
W W L W D W W D W W
〰 Mixed 2 in a row
Momentum 80%
Baghdad
L W L L D D D L D W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 20%
⚔ Head to Head
Erbil5W
Draw2
Baghdad3W
Mixed Erbil won 5 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📈 Recent Form
Erbil wins7/10
Baghdad wins2/10
Goals per game3
H2H avg goals3
Supports Tip Erbil: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games.
7-2-1
Erbil form
2-4-4
Baghdad form
60%
H2H BTTS rate
3
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Erbil
Overall
7.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
7.3
Baghdad
Overall
3.2
Scoring
4.7
Defence
4.0
Key Analytics
Erbil
1.9
Goals
scored/game
0.8
Goals
conceded/game
40%
Clean
sheets
Baghdad
1.4
Goals
scored/game
1.8
Goals
conceded/game
0%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 16%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
Match History
Head to Head
31.01.26
SL
Baghdad
Erbil
3
0
26.05.24
SL
Baghdad
Erbil
1
3
29.02.24
SL
Erbil
Baghdad
4
1
15.02.22
SL
Baghdad
Erbil
1
1
26.09.21
SL
Erbil
Baghdad
1
2
24.02.21
SL
Erbil
Baghdad
2
2
26.10.20
SL
Baghdad
Erbil
0
2
17.06.19
SL
Baghdad
Erbil
2
0
18.12.18
SL
Erbil
Baghdad
2
0
06.12.16
SL
Baghdad
Erbil
1
2
Recent Results
Erbil
28.05.26
SL
Zakho
Erbil
1
2
W
20.05.26
SL
Al Shorta
Erbil
0
2
W
16.05.26
SL
Erbil
Newroz
0
1
L
11.05.26
SL
Al Najaf
Erbil
1
4
W
06.05.26
SL
Erbil
Al Kahraba
2
2
D
02.05.26
SL
Erbil
Al Karkh
1
0
W
27.04.26
SL
Al Talaba
Erbil
2
3
W
23.04.26
SL
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Erbil
1
1
D
18.04.26
SL
Erbil
Al-Qassim
2
0
W
14.04.26
SL
Al Naft
Erbil
0
2
W
Baghdad
27.05.26
SL
Baghdad
Al Gharraf
1
3
L
19.05.26
SL
Diyala
Baghdad
1
4
W
15.05.26
SL
Baghdad
Al Kahraba
0
1
L
11.05.26
SL
Al Karkh
Baghdad
2
1
L
07.05.26
SL
Al Najaf
Baghdad
1
1
D
02.05.26
SL
Baghdad
Al-Qassim
2
2
D
26.04.26
SL
Baghdad
Al Zawraa
2
2
D
21.04.26
SL
Al Minaa
Baghdad
4
0
L
17.04.26
SL
Al Mosul
Baghdad
1
1
D
12.04.26
SL
Baghdad
Duhok
2
1
W
Expert Analysis

On Tuesday, 2nd June 2026, Erbil host Baghdad in Iraq Stars League. Our analysis points to Erbil to win as the standout bet.

Erbil come into this in strong form, with 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.9 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.

Baghdad are struggling away from home — 2W 4D 4L in 10 games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.8 per match.

Historically, Erbil have won 5 of the last 10 meetings against Baghdad, who have taken 3 victories, with 2 draws. Both teams scored in 60% of those games, averaging 3 goals.

With all factors considered, erbil to win at 1.42 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Iraq Stars League clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 1, which offers fantastic value at @1.42. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Erbil vs Baghdad?
Our top pick is 1 — Erbil to win at around 1.42. Confidence: 56%.
What is Erbil's recent form?
Erbil have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 — very good form.
How has Baghdad been performing?
Baghdad: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games — poor form.
What is the H2H record?
Erbil 5 wins vs Baghdad's 3, with 2 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 3 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 3 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 60%.
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