Tip WON  ·  Caernarfon 0-4 TNS
🏆 Wales Cymru Premier 📅 Friday, 27th March 2026
CAE
Caernarfon
L L W W L
0-4
VS
TNS
TNS
L W W L W
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 2.5
We're backing over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.48
~90% implied
Confidence
72%
Strong Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals @1.48
Goals Under 2.5 65%
Both Teams To Score BTTS — No 65%
H2H Over 2.5 70%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
+22.4%
edge
Value Bet
The market prices this at 67.6% but our model gives it 90%. That's a +22.4% edge — statistically meaningful.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 69.2% $692.00
Half Kelly 34.6% $346.00
Quarter Kelly 17.3% $173.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
Form Streak Tracker
Caernarfon
L L W W L L D W D D
〰 Mixed 2 in a row
Momentum 20%
TNS
L W W L W W W W W W
🔥 Hot 6 in a row
Momentum 100%
⚔ Head to Head
Caernarfon0W
Draw10
TNS0W
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 70% of H2H meetings (avg 3.7).
📈 Recent Form
Caernarfon wins3/10
TNS wins8/10
Goals per game1.6
H2H avg goals3.7
Caution Over 2.5 goals in 35% of recent games.
3-3-4
Caernarfon form
8-0-2
TNS form
50%
H2H BTTS rate
3.7
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Caernarfon
Overall
3.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
5.0
TNS
Overall
8.0
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Key Analytics
Caernarfon
1.6
Goals
scored/game
1.5
Goals
conceded/game
20%
Clean
sheets
TNS
0
Goals
scored/game
0
Goals
conceded/game
0%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 42%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 8%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 22%
Away Win & Under 2.5 42%
Match History
Head to Head
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints
Caernarfon Town
2
1
28.11.25
PL: The New Saints
Caernarfon Town
2
0
04.11.25
LC: The New Saints
Caernarfon Town
3
0
07.10.25
PL: Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
1
3
11.02.25
PL: Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
0
1
26.12.24
PL: Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
2
5
23.02.24
PL: Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
1
8
26.09.23
PL: Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
1
3
03.01.23
PL: Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
0
1
01.04.22
PL: Caernarfon Town
The New Saints
0
3
Recent Results
Caernarfon
21.03.26
PL: Barry Town
Caernarfon Town
2
1
L
13.03.26
PL: Caernarfon Town
Connah’s Quay
2
4
L
08.03.26
FAC: Rhyl 1879
Caernarfon Town
1
2
W
27.02.26
PL: Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
3
0
W
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints
Caernarfon Town
2
1
L
14.02.26
PL: Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
0
2
L
06.02.26
PL: Connah’s Quay
Caernarfon Town
1
1
D
31.01.26
FAC: Caernarfon Town
Colwyn Bay
4
1
W
24.01.26
PL: Penybont
Caernarfon Town
0
0
D
13.01.26
PL: Caernarfon Town
Connah’s Quay
2
2
D
TNS
20.03.26
PL: The New Saints
Colwyn Bay
0
2
L
14.03.26
PL: Penybont
The New Saints
1
2
W
03.03.26
PL: Connah’s Quay
The New Saints
1
2
W
28.02.26
CUP: The New Saints
Barry Town
0
2
L
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints
Caernarfon Town
2
1
W
13.02.26
PL: Colwyn Bay
The New Saints
0
2
W
07.02.26
PL: The New Saints
Penybont
6
0
W
24.01.26
PL: The New Saints
Barry Town
1
0
W
13.01.26
PL: The New Saints
Colwyn Bay
1
0
W
06.01.26
PL: The New Saints
Bala Town
2
1
W
Expert Analysis

On Friday, 27th March 2026, Caernarfon host TNS in Wales Cymru Premier. Our analysis points to over 2.5 goals as the standout bet.

Caernarfon come into this going through a difficult run, with 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.

TNS are travelling well — 8W 0D 2L in 10 games, scoring 0 and conceding 0 per match.

Historically, Caernarfon have won 0 of the last 10 meetings against TNS, who have taken 0 victories, with 10 draws. Both teams scored in 50% of those games, averaging 3.7 goals.

With all factors considered, over 2.5 goals at 1.48 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Wales Cymru Premier clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with Over 2.5, which offers fantastic value at @1.48. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Caernarfon vs TNS?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals at around 1.48. Confidence: 72%.
What is Caernarfon's recent form?
Caernarfon have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 — inconsistent.
How has TNS been performing?
TNS: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games — very good form.
What is the H2H record?
Caernarfon 0 wins vs TNS's 0, with 10 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 3.7 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 1.6 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 50%.
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