Tip LOST  ·  AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda
🏆 Eredivisie 📅 Sunday, 17th May 2026
AZ
AZ Alkmaar
D D D W D
3-3
VS
NAC
NAC Breda
W L L D D
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1
We're backing AZ Alkmaar to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.34
~50% implied
Confidence
55%
Solid Pick
18+ · Gamble responsibly · Tips are not guarantees · GambleAware · GamCare
Supporting Bets
★ Main 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win @1.34
Goals Over 1.5 85%
Both Teams To Score BTTS — No 65%
H2H Over 2.5 70%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-24.6%
edge
No Value
Market implies 74.6% probability. Our estimate is 50%, a -24.6% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
AZ Alkmaar
D D D W D W L W L W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 60%
NAC Breda
W L L D D L L D L W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 20%
⚔ Head to Head
AZ Alkmaar8W
Draw1
NAC Breda1W
Supports Tip AZ Alkmaar won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📈 Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar wins4/10
NAC Breda wins2/10
Goals per game2.9
H2H avg goals3.1
Caution AZ Alkmaar: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games.
4-4-2
AZ Alkmaar form
2-3-5
NAC Breda form
60%
H2H BTTS rate
3.1
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
AZ Alkmaar
Overall
5.2
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.0
NAC Breda
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.7
Defence
3.7
Key Analytics
AZ Alkmaar
1.9
Goals
scored/game
1.2
Goals
conceded/game
40%
Clean
sheets
NAC Breda
0.8
Goals
scored/game
1.9
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 24%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 20%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
Match History
Head to Head
31.08.25
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
0
1
24.04.25
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
1
1
15.12.24
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
1
2
12.02.20
KNV
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
1
3
08.02.19
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
0
3
12.08.18
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
5
0
17.02.18
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
1
3
10.09.17
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
2
1
10.05.15
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
NAC Breda
3
2
08.11.14
ERE
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
0
1
Recent Results
AZ Alkmaar
10.05.26
ERE
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
1
1
D
03.05.26
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
Twente
2
2
D
23.04.26
ERE
G.A. Eagles
AZ Alkmaar
0
0
D
19.04.26
KNV
AZ Alkmaar
Nijmegen
5
1
W
16.04.26
UECL
AZ Alkmaar
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
2
D
12.04.26
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen
3
0
W
09.04.26
UECL
Shakhtar Donetsk
AZ Alkmaar
3
0
L
04.04.26
ERE
AZ Alkmaar
Sittard
2
0
W
22.03.26
ERE
Groningen
AZ Alkmaar
3
0
L
19.03.26
UECL
Sparta Prague
AZ Alkmaar
0
4
W
NAC Breda
11.05.26
ERE
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
2
0
W
02.05.26
ERE
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
0
L
25.04.26
ERE
NAC Breda
Ajax
0
2
L
12.04.26
ERE
Sittard
NAC Breda
1
1
D
05.04.26
ERE
NAC Breda
Sparta Rotterdam
0
0
D
21.03.26
ERE
Zwolle
NAC Breda
2
1
L
15.03.26
ERE
G.A. Eagles
NAC Breda
6
0
L
08.03.26
ERE
NAC Breda
Feyenoord
3
3
D
27.02.26
ERE
Telstar
NAC Breda
3
0
L
21.02.26
ERE
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
1
0
W
Expert Analysis

On Sunday, 17th May 2026, AZ Alkmaar host NAC Breda in Eredivisie. Our analysis points to AZ Alkmaar to win as the standout bet.

AZ Alkmaar come into this showing mixed form, with 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

NAC Breda are struggling away from home — 2W 3D 5L in 10 games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.9 per match.

Historically, AZ Alkmaar have won 8 of the last 10 meetings against NAC Breda, who have taken 1 victories, with 1 draws. Both teams scored in 60% of those games, averaging 3.1 goals.

With all factors considered, az alkmaar to win at 1.34 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Eredivisie clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 1, which offers fantastic value at @1.34. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our top pick is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win at around 1.34. Confidence: 55%.
What is AZ Alkmaar's recent form?
AZ Alkmaar have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 — inconsistent.
How has NAC Breda been performing?
NAC Breda: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games — poor form.
What is the H2H record?
AZ Alkmaar 8 wins vs NAC Breda's 1, with 1 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 3.1 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.9 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 60%.
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