Tip WON  ·  Al Ahly 2-1 Smouha
🏆 Egypt Premier League 📅 Saturday, 11th April 2026
AL
Al Ahly
D L L L W
2-1
VS
SMO
Smouha
L W W L L
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1
We're backing Al Ahly to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.31
~50% implied
Confidence
50%
Solid Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main 1 — Al Ahly to win @1.31
Goals Under 2.5 65%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-26.3%
edge
No Value
Market implies 76.3% probability. Our estimate is 50%, a -26.3% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
Al Ahly
D L L L W D W W D W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 60%
Smouha
L W W L L L W W W W
🔥 Hot 4 in a row
Momentum 80%
⚔ Head to Head
Al Ahly6W
Draw2
Smouha2W
Supports Tip Al Ahly won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📈 Recent Form
Al Ahly wins4/10
Smouha wins6/10
Goals per game2.1
H2H avg goals2.3
Caution Al Ahly: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games.
4-3-3
Al Ahly form
6-0-4
Smouha form
30%
H2H BTTS rate
2.3
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Al Ahly
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
7.0
Smouha
Overall
6.0
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.3
Key Analytics
Al Ahly
1.2
Goals
scored/game
0.9
Goals
conceded/game
40%
Clean
sheets
Smouha
1.3
Goals
scored/game
0.8
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 31%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 12%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 34%
Match History
Head to Head
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC
Al Ahly
0
1
07.01.25
Premier League: Al Ahly
Smouha SC
2
0
08.08.24
Premier League: Smouha SC
Al Ahly
0
1
28.11.23
Premier League: Al Ahly
Smouha SC
0
0
17.04.23
Premier League: Smouha SC
Al Ahly
0
2
17.01.23
Egypt Cup: Al Ahly
Smouha SC
3
1
25.12.22
Premier League: Al Ahly
Smouha SC
0
0
29.06.22
Premier League: Smouha SC
Al Ahly
3
2
27.01.22
League Cup: Smouha SC
Al Ahly
3
0
25.11.21
Premier League: Al Ahly
Smouha SC
4
1
Recent Results
Al Ahly
07.04.26
Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra
Al Ahly
1
1
D
21.03.26
Champions League (QF): Al Ahly
Espérance Tunis
2
3
L
15.03.26
Champions League (QF): Espérance Tunis
Al Ahly
1
0
L
09.03.26
Premier League: Tala’ea El Gaish
Al Ahly
2
1
L
05.03.26
Premier League: Arab Contractors
Al Ahly
1
3
W
28.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly
ZED FC
1
1
D
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC
Al Ahly
0
1
W
19.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly
El Gouna FC
1
0
W
15.02.26
Champions League (GS): Al Ahly
FAR Rabat
0
0
D
11.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly
Ismaily SC
2
0
W
Smouha
07.04.26
Premier League: Smouha SC
ENPPI SC
0
2
L
07.03.26
Premier League: Smouha SC
Modern Sport
3
0
W
01.03.26
Premier League: National Bank of Egypt
Smouha SC
1
3
W
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC
Al Ahly
0
1
L
16.02.26
Premier League: Al Ittihad
Smouha SC
1
0
L
11.02.26
Premier League: Zamalek SC
Smouha SC
1
0
L
04.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC
Pyramids FC
2
1
W
29.01.26
Premier League: ENPPI SC
Smouha SC
1
2
W
21.01.26
Premier League: Smouha SC
Pharco FC
2
0
W
11.01.26
Egypt Cup: Smouha SC
Haras El Hodood
1
0
W
Expert Analysis

On Saturday, 11th April 2026, Al Ahly host Smouha in Egypt Premier League. Our analysis points to Al Ahly to win as the standout bet.

Al Ahly come into this showing mixed form, with 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.

Smouha are inconsistent on the road — 6W 0D 4L in 10 games, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 per match.

Historically, Al Ahly have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Smouha, who have taken 2 victories, with 2 draws. Both teams scored in 30% of those games, averaging 2.3 goals.

With all factors considered, al ahly to win at 1.31 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Egypt Premier League clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 1, which offers fantastic value at @1.31. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Al Ahly vs Smouha?
Our top pick is 1 — Al Ahly to win at around 1.31. Confidence: 50%.
What is Al Ahly's recent form?
Al Ahly have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 — inconsistent.
How has Smouha been performing?
Smouha: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games — decent form.
What is the H2H record?
Al Ahly 6 wins vs Smouha's 2, with 2 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 2.3 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.1 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 30%.
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