Tip WON  ·  Sweden 2-2 Greece
🏆 International Friendly 📅 Thursday, 4th June 2026
SWE
Sweden
L W W D L
2-2
VS
GRE
Greece
D L D W L
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 1.5
We're backing over 1.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.29
~90% implied
Confidence
90%
Strong Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals @1.29
Goals Over 2.5 65%
Goals Over 1.5 80%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
+12.5%
edge
Value Bet
The market prices this at 77.5% but our model gives it 90%. That's a +12.5% edge — statistically meaningful.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 55.5% $555.00
Half Kelly 27.8% $278.00
Quarter Kelly 13.9% $139.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
Form Streak Tracker
Sweden
L W W D L L L L D W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 20%
Greece
D L D W L L L W W W
🔥 Hot 3 in a row
Momentum 60%
⚔ Head to Head
Sweden3W
Draw1
Greece2W
Supports Tip Over 1.5 goals in 100% of H2H meetings (avg 3.8).
📈 Recent Form
Sweden wins3/10
Greece wins4/10
Goals per game3.4
H2H avg goals3.8
Supports Tip Over 1.5 goals in 80% of recent games.
3-2-5
Sweden form
4-2-4
Greece form
50%
H2H BTTS rate
3.8
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Sweden
Overall
3.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
3.0
Greece
Overall
4.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.3
Key Analytics
Sweden
1.5
Goals
scored/game
2.1
Goals
conceded/game
0%
Clean
sheets
Greece
1.8
Goals
scored/game
1.4
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 13%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 21%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 29%
Away Win & Under 2.5 16%
Match History
Head to Head
12.10.21
WC
Sweden
Greece
2
0
08.09.21
WC
Greece
Sweden
2
1
10.06.08
EUR
Greece
Sweden
0
2
20.08.03
FI
Sweden
Greece
1
2
13.02.02
FI
Greece
Sweden
2
2
28.08.20
OG
Sweden
Greece
9
0
Recent Results
Sweden
01.06.26
FI
Norway
Sweden
3
1
L
31.03.26
WC
Sweden
Poland
3
2
W
26.03.26
WC
Ukraine
Sweden
1
3
W
18.11.25
WC
Sweden
Slovenia
1
1
D
15.11.25
WC
Switzerland
Sweden
4
1
L
13.10.25
WC
Sweden
Kosovo
0
1
L
10.10.25
WC
Sweden
Switzerland
0
2
L
08.09.25
WC
Kosovo
Sweden
2
0
L
05.09.25
WC
Slovenia
Sweden
2
2
D
10.06.25
FI
Sweden
Algeria
4
3
W
Greece
31.03.26
FI
Hungary
Greece
0
0
D
27.03.26
FI
Greece
Paraguay
0
1
L
18.11.25
WC
Belarus
Greece
0
0
D
15.11.25
WC
Greece
Scotland
3
2
W
12.10.25
WC
Denmark
Greece
3
1
L
09.10.25
WC
Scotland
Greece
3
1
L
08.09.25
WC
Greece
Denmark
0
3
L
05.09.25
WC
Greece
Belarus
5
1
W
10.06.25
FI
Greece
Bulgaria
4
0
W
07.06.25
FI
Greece
Slovakia
4
1
W
Expert Analysis

On Thursday, 4th June 2026, Sweden host Greece in International Friendly. Our analysis points to over 1.5 goals as the standout bet.

Sweden come into this going through a difficult run, with 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.5 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game.

Greece are inconsistent on the road — 4W 2D 4L in 10 games, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 per match.

Historically, Sweden have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against Greece, who have taken 2 victories, with 1 draws. Both teams scored in 50% of those games, averaging 3.8 goals.

With all factors considered, over 1.5 goals at 1.29 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this International Friendly clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with Over 1.5, which offers fantastic value at @1.29. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Sweden vs Greece?
Our top pick is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals at around 1.29. Confidence: 90%.
What is Sweden's recent form?
Sweden have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 — inconsistent.
How has Greece been performing?
Greece: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games — inconsistent.
What is the H2H record?
Sweden 3 wins vs Greece's 2, with 1 draws in 6 meetings. Avg 3.8 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 3.4 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 50%.
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