Tip WON  ·  Karvan 0-3 Neftci Baku
🏆 Azerbaijan 1 Liqa 📅 Tuesday, 5th May 2026
KAR
Karvan
L W W L L
0-3
VS
NEF
Neftci Baku
W L D W W
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
2
We're backing Neftci Baku to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.27
~50% implied
Confidence
58%
Solid Pick
18+ · Gamble responsibly · Tips are not guarantees · GambleAware · GamCare
Supporting Bets
★ Main 2 — Neftci Baku to win @1.27
Goals Over 1.5 80%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-28.7%
edge
No Value
Market implies 78.7% probability. Our estimate is 50%, a -28.7% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
Karvan
L W W L L L D D L L
〰 Mixed 2 in a row
Momentum 0%
Neftci Baku
W L D W W W W L D W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 60%
⚔ Head to Head
Karvan1W
Draw2
Neftci Baku7W
Supports Tip Neftci Baku won 7 of 10 meetings.
📈 Recent Form
Karvan wins2/10
Neftci Baku wins6/10
Goals per game3.2
H2H avg goals1.7
Supports Tip Neftci Baku: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games.
2-2-6
Karvan form
6-2-2
Neftci Baku form
40%
H2H BTTS rate
1.7
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Karvan
Overall
2.6
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.0
Neftci Baku
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
5.3
Key Analytics
Karvan
0.8
Goals
scored/game
1.8
Goals
conceded/game
10%
Clean
sheets
Neftci Baku
2.3
Goals
scored/game
1.4
Goals
conceded/game
10%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Away Win & BTTS No 24%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 33%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
Match History
Head to Head
20.12.25
PL
Karvan
Neftci Baku
1
2
27.09.25
PL
Neftci Baku
Karvan
0
0
13.02.10
PL
Karvan
Neftci Baku
0
1
01.11.09
PL
Neftci Baku
Karvan
1
0
03.05.09
PL
Karvan
Neftci Baku
1
1
15.11.08
PL
Neftci Baku
Karvan
0
1
04.05.08
PL
Karvan
Neftci Baku
0
1
03.11.07
PL
Neftci Baku
Karvan
2
1
17.04.07
PL
Karvan
Neftci Baku
0
1
27.10.06
PL
Neftci Baku
Karvan
3
1
Recent Results
Karvan
27.04.26
PL
Sabah Baku
Karvan
2
0
L
18.04.26
PL
Karvan
Shamakhi
1
0
W
10.04.26
PL
Karvan
Kapaz
4
1
W
06.04.26
PL
Qarabag
Karvan
7
0
L
19.03.26
PL
Karvan
Zira
0
1
L
13.03.26
PL
Araz
Karvan
2
1
L
07.03.26
PL
Karvan
Sumqayit
1
1
D
28.02.26
PL
Gabala
Karvan
1
1
D
21.02.26
PL
Karvan
Araz
0
2
L
14.02.26
PL
Zira
Karvan
1
0
L
Neftci Baku
30.04.26
PL
Neftci Baku
Qarabag
2
1
W
26.04.26
PL
Neftci Baku
Qarabag
1
5
L
17.04.26
PL
Zira
Neftci Baku
1
1
D
11.04.26
PL
Neftci Baku
Araz
2
1
W
05.04.26
PL
Sumqayit
Neftci Baku
1
3
W
20.03.26
PL
Neftci Baku
Imisli FK
6
0
W
15.03.26
PL
Gabala
Neftci Baku
1
3
W
09.03.26
PL
Neftci Baku
Turan Tovuz
0
1
L
28.02.26
PL
Shamakhi
Neftci Baku
2
2
D
15.02.26
PL
Kapaz
Neftci Baku
1
3
W
Expert Analysis

On Tuesday, 5th May 2026, Karvan host Neftci Baku in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. Our analysis points to Neftci Baku to win as the standout bet.

Karvan come into this going through a difficult run, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game.

Neftci Baku are inconsistent on the road — 6W 2D 2L in 10 games, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.4 per match.

Historically, Karvan have won 1 of the last 10 meetings against Neftci Baku, who have taken 7 victories, with 2 draws. Both teams scored in 40% of those games, averaging 1.7 goals.

With all factors considered, neftci baku to win at 1.27 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Azerbaijan 1 Liqa clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 2, which offers fantastic value at @1.27. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Karvan vs Neftci Baku?
Our top pick is 2 — Neftci Baku to win at around 1.27. Confidence: 58%.
What is Karvan's recent form?
Karvan have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 — poor form.
How has Neftci Baku been performing?
Neftci Baku: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — decent form.
What is the H2H record?
Karvan 1 wins vs Neftci Baku's 7, with 2 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 1.7 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 3.2 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 40%.
⚠️ 18+ Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. BeGambleAware.org