Tip WON  ·  Man United 3-2 Liverpool
🏆 Premier League 📅 Sunday, 3rd May 2026
MAN
Man United
W W L D W
3-2
VS
LIV
Liverpool
W W L W L
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 1.5
We're backing over 1.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.14
~90% implied
Confidence
76%
Strong Pick
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Supporting Bets
★ Main Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals @1.14
Goals Under 2.5 75%
Both Teams To Score BTTS — No 80%
H2H Over 2.5 90%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
+2.3%
edge
Fair Price
Market implies 87.7%, we estimate 90%. The price is roughly in line — bet on conviction, not on edge alone.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 18.6% $186.00
Half Kelly 9.3% $93.00
Quarter Kelly 4.7% $47.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
Form Streak Tracker
Man United
W W L D W L W W D W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 60%
Liverpool
W W L W L L L W D L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 20%
⚔ Head to Head
Man United0W
Draw7
Liverpool3W
Supports Tip Over 1.5 goals in 90% of H2H meetings (avg 3.8).
📈 Recent Form
Man United wins6/10
Liverpool wins4/10
Goals per game1.4
H2H avg goals3.8
Mixed Over 1.5 goals in 45% of recent games.
6-2-2
Man United form
4-1-5
Liverpool form
50%
H2H BTTS rate
3.8
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Man United
Overall
6.6
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Liverpool
Overall
4.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
5.3
Key Analytics
Man United
0
Goals
scored/game
0
Goals
conceded/game
0%
Clean
sheets
Liverpool
1.3
Goals
scored/game
1.4
Goals
conceded/game
20%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Home Win & BTTS No 42%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 28%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 39%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
Match History
Head to Head
19.10.25
PL
Liverpool
Manchester Utd
1
2
05.01.25
PL
Liverpool
Manchester Utd
2
2
01.09.24
PL
Manchester Utd
Liverpool
0
3
04.08.24
CF
Manchester Utd
Liverpool
0
3
07.04.24
PL
Manchester Utd
Liverpool
2
2
17.03.24
FAC
Manchester Utd
Liverpool (aet)
4
3
17.12.23
PL
Liverpool
Manchester Utd
0
0
05.03.23
PL
Liverpool
Manchester Utd
7
0
22.08.22
PL
Manchester Utd
Liverpool
2
1
12.07.22
CF
Manchester Utd
Liverpool
4
0
Recent Results
Man United
27.04.26
PL
Manchester Utd
Brentford
2
1
W
18.04.26
PL
Chelsea
Manchester Utd
0
1
W
13.04.26
PL
Manchester Utd
Leeds
1
2
L
20.03.26
PL
Bournemouth
Manchester Utd
2
2
D
15.03.26
PL
Manchester Utd
Aston Villa
3
1
W
04.03.26
PL
Newcastle
Manchester Utd
2
1
L
01.03.26
PL
Manchester Utd
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
23.02.26
PL
Everton
Manchester Utd
0
1
W
10.02.26
PL
West Ham
Manchester Utd
1
1
D
07.02.26
PL
Manchester Utd
Tottenham
2
0
W
Liverpool
25.04.26
PL
Liverpool
Crystal Palace
3
1
W
19.04.26
PL
Everton
Liverpool
1
2
W
14.04.26
CL
Liverpool
PSG
0
2
L
11.04.26
PL
Liverpool
Fulham
2
0
W
08.04.26
CL
PSG
Liverpool
2
0
L
04.04.26
FAC
Manchester City
Liverpool
4
0
L
21.03.26
PL
Brighton
Liverpool
2
1
L
18.03.26
CL
Liverpool
Galatasaray
4
0
W
15.03.26
PL
Liverpool
Tottenham
1
1
D
10.03.26
CL
Galatasaray
Liverpool
1
0
L
Expert Analysis

On Sunday, 3rd May 2026, Man United host Liverpool in Premier League. Our analysis points to over 1.5 goals as the standout bet.

Man United come into this showing mixed form, with 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 0 goals scored and 0 conceded per game.

Liverpool are inconsistent on the road — 4W 1D 5L in 10 games, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 per match.

Historically, Man United have won 0 of the last 10 meetings against Liverpool, who have taken 3 victories, with 7 draws. Both teams scored in 50% of those games, averaging 3.8 goals.

With all factors considered, over 1.5 goals at 1.14 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Premier League clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with Over 1.5, which offers fantastic value at @1.14. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Man United vs Liverpool?
Our top pick is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals at around 1.14. Confidence: 76%.
What is Man United's recent form?
Man United have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 — decent form.
How has Liverpool been performing?
Liverpool: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games — inconsistent.
What is the H2H record?
Man United 0 wins vs Liverpool's 3, with 7 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 3.8 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 1.4 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 50%.
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