Tip LOST  ·  Sporting CP 2-2 Tondela
🏆 Portugal Liga 📅 Wednesday, 29th April 2026
SPO
Sporting CP
D D L D W
2-2
VS
TON
Tondela
L L D L D
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1
We're backing Sporting CP to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.12
~60% implied
Confidence
59%
Solid Pick
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Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-29.3%
edge
No Value
Market implies 89.3% probability. Our estimate is 60%, a -29.3% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
Form Streak Tracker
Sporting CP
D D L D W L W W W L
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 60%
Tondela
L L D L D L D W D D
〰 Mixed 2 in a row
Momentum 20%
⚔ Head to Head
Sporting CP8W
Draw1
Tondela1W
Supports Tip Sporting CP won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📈 Recent Form
Sporting CP wins4/10
Tondela wins1/10
Goals per game2.6
H2H avg goals2.6
Caution Sporting CP: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games.
4-3-3
Sporting CP form
1-5-4
Tondela form
30%
H2H BTTS rate
2.6
H2H avg goals
Team Form Ratings
Sporting CP
Overall
4.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
6.7
Tondela
Overall
2.5
Scoring
3.0
Defence
4.3
Key Analytics
Sporting CP
1.6
Goals
scored/game
1
Goals
conceded/game
40%
Clean
sheets
Tondela
0.9
Goals
scored/game
1.7
Goals
conceded/game
20%
Clean
sheets
Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 26%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 20%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 20%
Draw & Under 2.5 24%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
Match History
Head to Head
26.10.25
LP
Tondela
Sporting CP
0
3
09.01.24
TP
Sporting CP
Tondela
4
0
23.12.23
CUP
Tondela
Sporting CP
1
2
09.04.22
LP
Tondela
Sporting CP
1
3
28.11.21
LP
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
13.03.21
LP
Tondela
Sporting CP
0
1
01.11.20
LP
Sporting CP
Tondela
4
0
18.06.20
LP
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
03.11.19
LP
Tondela
Sporting CP
1
0
11.05.19
LP
Sporting CP
Tondela
1
1
Recent Results
Sporting CP
26.04.26
LP
AFS
Sporting CP
1
1
D
22.04.26
TP
FC Porto
Sporting CP
0
0
D
19.04.26
LP
Sporting CP
Benfica
1
2
L
15.04.26
CL
Arsenal
Sporting CP
0
0
D
11.04.26
LP
Estrela
Sporting CP
0
1
W
07.04.26
CL
Sporting CP
Arsenal
0
1
L
03.04.26
LP
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
4
2
W
22.03.26
LP
Alverca
Sporting CP
1
4
W
17.03.26
CL
Sporting CP
Bodo/Glimt (3 - 0)
5
0
W
11.03.26
CL
Bodo/Glimt
Sporting CP
3
0
L
Tondela
25.04.26
LP
Tondela
Nacional
0
2
L
19.04.26
LP
FC Porto
Tondela
2
0
L
13.04.26
LP
Tondela
Gil Vicente
2
2
D
03.04.26
LP
Vitoria Guimaraes
Tondela
5
0
L
21.03.26
LP
Tondela
AFS
0
0
D
09.03.26
LP
Tondela
Rio Ave
0
1
L
01.03.26
LP
Tondela
Santa Clara
2
2
D
20.02.26
LP
Estrela
Tondela
0
2
W
13.02.26
LP
Tondela
Alverca
1
1
D
07.02.26
LP
Estoril
Tondela
2
2
D
Expert Analysis

On Wednesday, 29th April 2026, Sporting CP host Tondela in Portugal Liga. Our analysis points to Sporting CP to win as the standout bet.

Sporting CP come into this showing mixed form, with 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game.

Tondela are struggling away from home — 1W 5D 4L in 10 games, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.7 per match.

Historically, Sporting CP have won 8 of the last 10 meetings against Tondela, who have taken 1 victories, with 1 draws. Both teams scored in 30% of those games, averaging 2.6 goals.

With all factors considered, sporting cp to win at 1.12 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Portugal Liga clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 1, which offers fantastic value at @1.12. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Sporting CP vs Tondela?
Our top pick is 1 — Sporting CP to win at around 1.12. Confidence: 59%.
What is Sporting CP's recent form?
Sporting CP have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 — inconsistent.
How has Tondela been performing?
Tondela: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games — poor form.
What is the H2H record?
Sporting CP 8 wins vs Tondela's 1, with 1 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 2.6 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.6 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 30%.
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