Tip WON  ·  AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Telstar
🏆 KNVB Beker 📅 Wednesday, 4th March 2026
AZ
AZ Alkmaar
L W W L W
2-1
VS
TEL
Telstar
W L D D W
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1
We're backing AZ Alkmaar to win in this fixture.
Odds
1.48
~50% implied
Confidence
32%
Value Play
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Bettor Intelligence
📊 Value Assessment
-17.6%
edge
No Value
Market implies 67.6% probability. Our estimate is 50%, a -17.6% gap. The price doesn't reflect enough value.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
⚔ Head to Head
AZ Alkmaar0W
Draw5
Telstar0W
Against AZ Alkmaar won 0 of the last 5 meetings (5 draws).
📈 Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar wins
Telstar wins
Goals per game
H2H avg goals2.2
Mixed Not enough form data.
AZ Alkmaar form
Telstar form
20%
H2H BTTS rate
2.2
H2H avg goals
Match History
Head to Head
25.01.26
: TEL
AZA - ERE
0
1
05.10.25
: AZA
TEL - ERE
2
1
13.07.19
: TEL
AZA - CF
3
0
16.07.16
: AZA
TEL - CF
3
0
29.10.15
: TEL
AZA - KNV
0
1
Recent Results
AZ Alkmaar
01.03.26
: UTR
AZA - ERE
2
0
26.02.26
: AZA
NOA - UECL
4
0
22.02.26
: AZA
SPA - ERE
3
1
19.02.26
: NOA
AZA - UECL
1
0
14.02.26
: EXC
AZA - ERE
1
2
Telstar
27.02.26
: TEL
NAC - ERE
3
0
22.02.26
: FEY
TEL - ERE
2
1
15.02.26
: TEL
TWE - ERE
1
1
08.02.26
: GAE
TEL - ERE
1
1
05.02.26
: TEL
GAE - KNV
2
1
Expert Analysis

On Wednesday, 4th March 2026, AZ Alkmaar host Telstar in KNVB Beker. Our analysis points to AZ Alkmaar to win as the standout bet.

Historically, AZ Alkmaar have won 0 of the last 5 meetings against Telstar, who have taken 0 victories, with 5 draws. Both teams scored in 20% of those games, averaging 2.2 goals.

With all factors considered, az alkmaar to win at 1.48 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


AZ Alkmaar faces Telstar in a highly anticipated KNVB Beker semi-final at the AFAS Stadion. AZ enters as the clear favorite, having recently humiliated Ajax 6-0 in the previous round.

Although they lost 2-0 to Utrecht in their last league outing, their cup form is terrifying; they average 3.3 goals per game in this competition. Troy Parrott leads the line for a side that has scored at least one goal in 19 of their last 20 home fixtures.

Telstar arrives as the tournament’s “Cinderella” story. The second-division side has knocked out four opponents to reach this stage, including the current trophy holders, Go Ahead Eagles.

They recently thrashed NAC Breda 3-0, proving they can compete with Eredivisie-level talent. However, the gap in quality is substantial.

AZ has won all seven of their previous encounters with Telstar, scoring 19 goals and conceding only once in that span. Telstar must play a perfect defensive game to survive AZ’s high-octane attack, which typically scores multiple goals in the second half of cup ties.

Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
Our top pick is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win at around 1.48. Confidence: 32%.
What is AZ Alkmaar's recent form?
Recent form: L/W/W/L/W
How has Telstar been performing?
Recent form: W/L/D/D/W
What is the H2H record?
AZ Alkmaar 0 wins vs Telstar's 0, with 5 draws in 5 meetings. Avg 2.2 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Insufficient data — see the preview for context.
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