Betting on underdogs can bring massive returns, but only when done with purpose. Backing the weaker side just because the odds look good is a fast way to burn your bankroll.
To succeed with underdog betting, you need timing, research, restraint, and a bit of psychology. This guide breaks it all down in a simple way that anyone can follow, from the casual punter to the serious strategist.
What Makes an Underdog Worth Betting On?
Not all underdogs are equal. Some are simply overmatched. Others are underrated by the public or misjudged by the bookmakers. A smart bettor knows how to spot the difference. Start by looking at these three key areas:
1. Team Form and Motivation
Don’t assume because a team is lower in the standings that they are truly inferior. Sometimes the so-called underdog is simply on a cold streak, or missing one key player temporarily.
Take the 2024 match between Girona and Atlético Madrid. Most punters skipped Girona, yet they were unbeaten in their last five home matches. They went on to win 4–3, offering a payout of over 5.00.
2. Match Context
An underdog might perform better in certain situations. Maybe it’s a derby game. Maybe the favorite is rotating their squad ahead of a big Champions League fixture.
Or maybe the match is played at a small stadium with hostile fans where the home team historically does well. This context matters.
3. Style of Play
Sometimes the underdog’s style matches up well. A side that plays tight defense and relies on counterattacks can frustrate possession-heavy favorites.
If a team like Crystal Palace is playing at home against a high-line defense like Tottenham, that’s a situation where betting on the underdog or draw makes sense.
How Can You Bet on Underdogs Without Taking Blind Risks?
Blind risk is betting with hope instead of logic. The goal is not to guess right once in a while but to win often enough that your long-term results stay positive. Use the strategies below.
1. Start With Double Chance or Draw No Bet
Betting on an underdog doesn’t mean you always need to pick them to win outright. Use safer markets like double chance (win or draw) or draw no bet (refund if it’s a draw).
These reduce risk while still offering decent odds. For example, if Brentford at home is priced at 3.80 to win against Manchester United, the draw no bet market may offer 2.60. It’s not a jackpot, but it’s fair and smart.
2. Watch Market Movement Before Kickoff
Betting markets are shaped by sharp money and casual bets. If odds on a favorite begin to drift just before the match, it may signal insider knowledge about injuries or internal problems. If an underdog’s odds shorten slightly, that often means professional bettors have found something. Wait, watch, and only place your bet once the market gives you clues.
3. Use Expected Goals (xG) and Underlying Stats
Many underdogs are underrated because they’ve lost matches unfairly. A team might have a run of losses despite creating more high-quality chances (xG).
Teams like Bologna in early 2025 were prime examples. They had several games where their xG was higher than the opposition, yet the scoreline didn’t reflect that. Smart bettors followed the data, not the score, and profited when their form turned.
What Types of Underdogs Should You Avoid?
1. Emotionally Driven Picks
Never bet on an underdog just because you want them to win. Fans often back their own club in tough fixtures hoping for an upset.
This is not strategy, it’s sentiment. Real Madrid fans betting on Almería to beat Barcelona doesn’t make sense unless the data supports it.
2. Teams in Internal Crisis
Sometimes an underdog is priced high because of deep problems: dressing room issues, unpaid wages, coaching chaos.
In early 2025, Hertha Berlin went on a nine-game winless run during financial instability. No matter how high the odds were, smart punters avoided them.
3. Teams With No Purpose Late in the Season
If a team is already relegated or mathematically safe, they might field untested players or lose motivation. Late in the 2024 season, teams like Strasbourg and Verona rotated heavily. While this might tempt some to back them due to longer odds, it rarely ends well.
How Do You Build a Long-Term Underdog Strategy?
Track Your Results in Detail
Keep a betting journal. Record the odds, bet type, reasoning, result, and closing line. Over time, you’ll find patterns. You may realize you do better betting home underdogs or that you lose money chasing away wins. Use this record to refine your approach.
1. Combine with Other Value Markets
Use underdogs in accumulators, Asian handicaps, or over/under bets when the matchup fits. For example, a weaker team that scores early often draws back into a defensive shell, leading to fewer goals. Spotting this can help you mix your bets intelligently.
2. Limit Stakes and Avoid Tilt
Never chase losses with risky underdog bets. Allocate a set percentage of your bankroll per bet, usually between 1% to 3%. When things go wrong, resist the urge to double your next stake on a long shot. That’s how punters go broke.
What Do University Studies Say?
A study by the University of Alberta in 2023 showed that underdogs in football win more often than expected in markets with strong fan bias.
The research concluded that bookmakers adjust odds to match betting volume rather than probability. This leaves occasional gaps where the underdog value is real.
A similar report from the University of Leeds in 2022 found that matches with low media attention showed higher value on underdogs, due to less betting activity and fewer odds corrections.
Real-Life Scenario
Picture a Premier League match. Bournemouth is hosting Newcastle. Most punters look at the names and pick Newcastle.
But Bournemouth’s last three home games saw them earn 7 points, while Newcastle just returned from a draining European away match and rotated key players.
You spot that and place a draw no bet on Bournemouth at 2.75. They win 2–1, and you walk away with profit, not because you guessed, but because you spotted opportunity others missed.
FAQ on Betting Underdogs Without Taking Blind Risks
1. What is the safest way to bet on underdogs?
Use markets like double chance or draw no bet. These give protection if the underdog avoids defeat without needing them to win outright.
2. Can I include underdogs in accumulators?
Yes, but with caution. Avoid stringing too many underdogs together. Use one or two with strong backing in a broader ticket.
3. How do I know when an underdog has real value?
Look at recent form, tactical matchups, motivation, and xG statistics. Market shifts and odds shortening can also hint at value.
4. Are home underdogs better than away underdogs?
Generally, yes. Home advantage still influences outcomes. Teams are more confident and statistically perform better in front of their fans.
5. Is it better to bet early or wait before betting on underdogs?
Wait closer to kickoff. Early odds might not reflect late news like injuries or lineup changes. Monitoring movement gives better information.
6. What should I avoid when betting on underdogs?
Avoid emotional bets, crisis clubs, and end-of-season teams with nothing at stake. Focus on those with momentum, purpose, and strategic fit.
7. How many underdog bets should I place weekly?
Quality over quantity. Even one or two well-researched bets per week can be enough. Underdog betting is about precision, not volume.
8. Do bookmakers know when an underdog will win?
Not always. They rely on models, volume, and market behavior. Sharp bettors who study match context often spot value before odds adjust.