Tip LOST Man City 1-2 Aston Villa
Match Programme Sunday, 24th May 2026
🏆 Premier League
MA
M
Man City
D W W W D
1
VS
A
Aston Villa
W W D W L
2
Expert Selection
1
Backing Man City to win
Score 1-1 10.3%
Odds
1.35
Confidence
62%
SOLID PICK
H 50%D 30%A 20%
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Page 2
⚡ Supporting Bets
Additional Angles
Primary Selection
1Man City to win
1.35
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80% Man City Clean Sheet60%
Page 3
🎲 Betting Angles at a Glance
Key Stats For Bettors
Value Assessment — Our Probability vs Market Odds
Our Probability
50%
Analyst estimate
Market Implied
74%
From odds 1.35
Overpriced
-24%
Market prices this higher
70%
Over 2.5
Goals Rate
45%
BTTS Rate
Recent
80%
H2H BTTS
Rate
3
H2H Avg
Goals/Game
Page 4
⚔ Head to Head
Historical Record
6
Man City
1
Draws
3
Aston Villa
Supports Bet Man City won 6 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
Page 5
📊 Statistical Comparison
Performance Data
Man City
Stat
Aston Villa
2.3
Goals Per Game
2.3
0.6
Conceded Per Game
1.2
60%
Clean Sheets
30%
8-2-0
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate
80%
50%
Page 6
📈 Form Ratings
Analyst Grades
Man City
Overall
8.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
8.0
Aston Villa
Overall
5.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
6.0
Page 7
🎯 Score Predictions
Poisson Model
Based on both teams' goals-per-game averages. Probabilistic estimates, not guarantees.
Top Pick
1-1
10.3% probability
Alternative 1
2-1
9.1% probability
Alternative 2
1-2
7.5% probability
Page 8
🔀 Combination Markets
Probability Estimates
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes24%
Home Win & BTTS No29%
Draw & BTTS Yes6%
Draw & BTTS No7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes15%
Away Win & BTTS No19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.537%
Home Win & Under 2.516%
Draw & Over 2.59%
Draw & Under 2.54%
Away Win & Over 2.524%
Away Win & Under 2.510%
Page 9
📜 Match Archive
Results Log
Head to Head
26.10.25PL
Aston Villa
1
Manchester City
0
22.04.25PL
Manchester City
2
Aston Villa
1
21.12.24PL
Aston Villa
2
Manchester City
1
03.04.24PL
Manchester City
4
Aston Villa
1
06.12.23PL
Aston Villa
1
Manchester City
0
12.02.23PL
Manchester City
3
Aston Villa
1
03.09.22PL
Aston Villa
1
Manchester City
1
22.05.22PL
Manchester City
3
Aston Villa
2
01.12.21PL
Aston Villa
1
Manchester City
2
21.04.21PL
Aston Villa
1
Manchester City
2
Recent Results
Man City
19.05.26PL
Bournemouth
1
Manchester City
1
D
16.05.26FAC
Chelsea
0
Manchester City
1
W
13.05.26PL
Manchester City
3
Crystal Palace
0
W
09.05.26PL
Manchester City
3
Brentford
0
W
04.05.26PL
Everton
3
Manchester City
3
D
25.04.26FAC
Manchester City
2
Southampton
1
W
22.04.26PL
Burnley
0
Manchester City
1
W
19.04.26PL
Manchester City
2
Arsenal
1
W
12.04.26PL
Chelsea
0
Manchester City
3
W
04.04.26FAC
Manchester City
4
Liverpool
0
W
Aston Villa
20.05.26EL
Freiburg
0
Aston Villa
3
W
15.05.26PL
Aston Villa
4
Liverpool
2
W
10.05.26PL
Burnley
2
Aston Villa
2
D
07.05.26EL
Aston Villa
4
Nottingham
0
W
03.05.26PL
Aston Villa
1
Tottenham
2
L
30.04.26EL
Nottingham
1
Aston Villa
0
L
25.04.26PL
Fulham
1
Aston Villa
0
L
19.04.26PL
Aston Villa
4
Sunderland
3
W
16.04.26EL
Aston Villa
4
Bologna
0
W
12.04.26PL
Nottingham
1
Aston Villa
1
D
Page 10
📝 Expert Analysis
Match Preview

On Sunday, 24th May 2026, Man City host Aston Villa in Premier League. Our analysts back Man City to win as the standout selection.

Man City arrive in strong form: 8W 2D 0L from 10 matches, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game.

Aston Villa are inconsistent on the road: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games.

H2H: Man City lead with 6 wins vs Aston Villa's 3, with 1 draws in 10 meetings. BTTS in 80% of those games.

Verdict: man city to win at 1.35 is our best value angle for this fixture.


You cannot just guess and hope to beat the bookies in this Premier League clash; it takes real research. Finding a reliable bet means completely trusting the stats and ignoring whatever the media hype is trying to sell you today. We always start our breakdown with the home side.

Sure, their overall season record matters for the baseline odds, but we care way more about their recent games. That recent stretch shows us if they are actually scoring goals easily or leaking them at the back right now. On the other side of the pitch, the away team needs the exact same treatment.

Are they hitting a rough patch, or are they quietly finding their best form? We compare their whole season to their last few outings to find the real answer. Plus, looking at how these two teams matched up in the past is a massive deal. Those older games often highlight mental blocks or clashing playing styles that normal betting models completely miss.

When you mix that history with current form, the winning choice becomes incredibly obvious. We highly recommend going with 1, which offers fantastic value at @1.35. As soon as the whistle blows, our job is done and we just watch the game play out.

The final score will show if our numbers were on point. Take a look at our other daily predictions to keep winning.

Page 11
❓ Common Questions
Bettor FAQ
What is the best bet for Man City vs Aston Villa?
Selection: 1 — Man City to win at ~1.35. Confidence: 62%.
What is Man City's recent form?
Man City: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games.
How has Aston Villa been performing?
Aston Villa: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games.
What does the H2H record show?
Man City 6W vs Aston Villa 3W, 1 draws in 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected?
Average 3.2 goals/game. H2H BTTS rate: 80%.